Canadian Election Predictions
#26
Rotoholic Moderookie
iTrader: (4)
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,962
Likes: 33
From: Ottawa, Soviet Canuckistan
And I won't lock this thread as long as it stays on track. Predicting the look of the house is okay. Bashing parties, platforms, representatives or other forum members not allowed. I may be editing some of the above posts to remove things if people start flaming each other over what's already been said.
Nothing wrong with a little prediction.
Jon
Nothing wrong with a little prediction.
Jon
#28
Well I hope Tthe Liberals win.... I can eep my new job, and they won't **** with the rducatrion system too much, the PC ubder Harris, fucked the next generation of Onatarians with the educatio system now being used, OF COUSRE CUTTNG 1 YEAR OF SCHOOL WILL SAVE PEOPLE MONEY!!!!!!!!!
#29
I'm thinking a Conservative minority, although I would prefer a majority, as otherwise we'll quickly see the Libs and NDP join to topple the government and start the whole thing over again. I'm not particularly a Conservative fan, but I do think governments are like diapers - they need to be changed often, and for much the same reasons Same reason I'd like to see Alberta's Conservatives turfed out, at least for a while - long governments tend to become bad governments, as they develop a sense of entitlement, lack of direction or vision (beyond hanging on to power), and tend to fill the civil service with party flaks and cronies.
I do think the Libs are engaging in a lot of scaremongering about the the Con's social policy agenda, I don't think there's enough consensus even in the Conservative party to make major changes to abortion or gay rights or other social policy issues. And I'm more inclined to think the Cons will follow thru on tax reform, cleaning up spending, and rebuilding our military than the Liberals, so even a one-term Conservative gov't could be a big plus. Martin is an improvement over Chretien, but changing the leader doesn't remove all the rot underneath - again, tends to be a feature of mult-term governments.
I do think the Libs are engaging in a lot of scaremongering about the the Con's social policy agenda, I don't think there's enough consensus even in the Conservative party to make major changes to abortion or gay rights or other social policy issues. And I'm more inclined to think the Cons will follow thru on tax reform, cleaning up spending, and rebuilding our military than the Liberals, so even a one-term Conservative gov't could be a big plus. Martin is an improvement over Chretien, but changing the leader doesn't remove all the rot underneath - again, tends to be a feature of mult-term governments.
#30
Viewing this country from a high level (lets say about 10,000 ft), I can't help noticing we are in pretty good ashape - keep in mind, I'm speaking economically. Despite the scandels (and there will always be scandels in politics), we are a prosperous nation. If you've been around long enough to stack our state of the union up against previous administrations, you can't help but notice most of us are better off.
Unfortunately, most of the good stuff is forgotton during elections - the negative spin is dominating and allows us all to forget about what we really need and what we already have.
Oh, and I predict a PC minority - isn't that what the polls have been telling us for weeks???
IMO disclaimer
Unfortunately, most of the good stuff is forgotton during elections - the negative spin is dominating and allows us all to forget about what we really need and what we already have.
Oh, and I predict a PC minority - isn't that what the polls have been telling us for weeks???
IMO disclaimer
#31
god bless the toronto sun
a day before the election
http://torontosun.com/Money/2006/01/22/1405858-sun.html
http://torontosun.com/Money/2006/01/22/1405858-sun.html
a day before the election
http://torontosun.com/Money/2006/01/22/1405858-sun.html
http://torontosun.com/Money/2006/01/22/1405858-sun.html
#32
Originally Posted by Northern 7
Viewing this country from a high level (lets say about 10,000 ft), I can't help noticing we are in pretty good ashape - keep in mind, I'm speaking economically. Despite the scandels (and there will always be scandels in politics), we are a prosperous nation. If you've been around long enough to stack our state of the union up against previous administrations, you can't help but notice most of us are better off.
Unfortunately, most of the good stuff is forgotton during elections - the negative spin is dominating and allows us all to forget about what we really need and what we already have.
Oh, and I predict a PC minority - isn't that what the polls have been telling us for weeks???
IMO disclaimer
Unfortunately, most of the good stuff is forgotton during elections - the negative spin is dominating and allows us all to forget about what we really need and what we already have.
Oh, and I predict a PC minority - isn't that what the polls have been telling us for weeks???
IMO disclaimer
Here in Alberta, we have had the good fortune to have oil prices, and therefore resource royalties, soar in the last 10 years. Even the Chinese communists couldn't mess that up (and China is in fact booming economically too, although past federal Liberal governments have managed to mess up the Alberta economy, but that is not the current issue). When I look at the performance of the Alberta government, however, I see a gov't that still manages to waste a lot of money, and produce a very mediocre result in terms of public services (schools, universities, healthcare, and roads/transportation, and taxes) compared to other jurisdictions that have had similar good fortune (Alaska being a prime example - where the state has created a massive and growing fund that will fund public services for decades to come, and provides annual dividends of several thousand dollars to each state resident. Alberta's Heritage Fund was envisioned to be a similar concept 25+years ago, but mismanagement and lack of long term commitment to the original plan have seen it actually decline in value compared to inflation.
Similarly on a national front, I see our economy as growing largely in spite of, rather than because of, our federal government. Most of the financial changes that started yielding federal surpluses in the 90's actually originated with the Mulroney Tories (now there's a popular topic -lol), coupled with a world economy that recovered it's appetite for Canadian natural resources - so like the Alberta Tories, there's little the federal Liberals can really take credit for. On the other hand, we have amongst the highest taxes in the developed world, and yet a lower level of public services than other relatively high tax western nations, such as Sweden, France, Germany, or Australia. And we're still largely hewers of wood and drawers of water for other nations that consume our resources, rather than multiplying our resource advantage by processing and producing more products here in Canada based on those material inputs.
#33
Thread Starter
Rotary Freak
iTrader: (7)
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 1,855
Likes: 0
From: Woodbridge, Ontario
Well the day before the election and I ran into what appeared to be a Jack Layton scheduled stop on Bloor St., Toronto. I then went home to get an automated phone message from the local Conservative candidate requesting support. No contact from the liberals yet.
What happened to the door to door campaigning I remember as a youth. It was always fun listening when my mom told her worlds problems to complete strangers at the door, who in turn told her who to vote for to solve her problems. Did anyone get someone at their door this year?
What happened to the door to door campaigning I remember as a youth. It was always fun listening when my mom told her worlds problems to complete strangers at the door, who in turn told her who to vote for to solve her problems. Did anyone get someone at their door this year?
#34
Originally Posted by Scott 89t2
I want tougher punishment for crime -- harper
I want property rights -- harper
I want out of kyoto -- harper
I want a military I can have pride in -- harper
I want to scrap the gun registry and put the money into police -- harper
I want to see all the people involved in all the scams arested, charged, and jailed. this will only happen under harper. martin will sweep it away.
I want lower taxes -- harper will probably save me more. martin might help others more. but the above stuff is more important to me then a few dollars.
I want private and public health care. --harper and martin. laytons out to lunch.
I can't think of a single policly from Martin or layton that I'm interested in.
I'll predict a harper minority which is too bad. because then likly not much of the above will happen.
and then we'll be doing this again next year
If Martin wins I'll probably start job hunting in the US
some of the ridings will be interesting and fun to watch. I think landside Anne will finaly go, putting alberta 100% blue. Goodale is fighting for life right now too. and so is martin in his own riding.
you know the liberals are in trouble if the top 3 members can't win their own seats.
I want property rights -- harper
I want out of kyoto -- harper
I want a military I can have pride in -- harper
I want to scrap the gun registry and put the money into police -- harper
I want to see all the people involved in all the scams arested, charged, and jailed. this will only happen under harper. martin will sweep it away.
I want lower taxes -- harper will probably save me more. martin might help others more. but the above stuff is more important to me then a few dollars.
I want private and public health care. --harper and martin. laytons out to lunch.
I can't think of a single policly from Martin or layton that I'm interested in.
I'll predict a harper minority which is too bad. because then likly not much of the above will happen.
and then we'll be doing this again next year
If Martin wins I'll probably start job hunting in the US
some of the ridings will be interesting and fun to watch. I think landside Anne will finaly go, putting alberta 100% blue. Goodale is fighting for life right now too. and so is martin in his own riding.
you know the liberals are in trouble if the top 3 members can't win their own seats.
Originally Posted by Alak
NDP Majority was a political joke lol.
#35
Originally Posted by Lawyer's Spirit
Well the day before the election and I ran into what appeared to be a Jack Layton scheduled stop on Bloor St., Toronto. I then went home to get an automated phone message from the local Conservative candidate requesting support. No contact from the liberals yet.
What happened to the door to door campaigning I remember as a youth. It was always fun listening when my mom told her worlds problems to complete strangers at the door, who in turn told her who to vote for to solve her problems. Did anyone get someone at their door this year?
What happened to the door to door campaigning I remember as a youth. It was always fun listening when my mom told her worlds problems to complete strangers at the door, who in turn told her who to vote for to solve her problems. Did anyone get someone at their door this year?
Get ready for a minority government with Harper as Prime Minister
Last edited by rx_prez; 01-22-06 at 09:23 PM.
#36
Originally Posted by rx7racerca
This is a lot of the same reasoning that has kept the Alberta Conservatives in power for 30+ years - if times are good, the government must be doing a good job, right? I would say, however, that the measure is not how good things are, economically or otherwise, as this is often as not despite, not because of, the governments actions.
Here in Alberta, we have had the good fortune to have oil prices, and therefore resource royalties, soar in the last 10 years. Even the Chinese communists couldn't mess that up (and China is in fact booming economically too, although past federal Liberal governments have managed to mess up the Alberta economy, but that is not the current issue). When I look at the performance of the Alberta government, however, I see a gov't that still manages to waste a lot of money, and produce a very mediocre result in terms of public services (schools, universities, healthcare, and roads/transportation, and taxes) compared to other jurisdictions that have had similar good fortune (Alaska being a prime example - where the state has created a massive and growing fund that will fund public services for decades to come, and provides annual dividends of several thousand dollars to each state resident. Alberta's Heritage Fund was envisioned to be a similar concept 25+years ago, but mismanagement and lack of long term commitment to the original plan have seen it actually decline in value compared to inflation.
Similarly on a national front, I see our economy as growing largely in spite of, rather than because of, our federal government. Most of the financial changes that started yielding federal surpluses in the 90's actually originated with the Mulroney Tories (now there's a popular topic -lol), coupled with a world economy that recovered it's appetite for Canadian natural resources - so like the Alberta Tories, there's little the federal Liberals can really take credit for. On the other hand, we have amongst the highest taxes in the developed world, and yet a lower level of public services than other relatively high tax western nations, such as Sweden, France, Germany, or Australia. And we're still largely hewers of wood and drawers of water for other nations that consume our resources, rather than multiplying our resource advantage by processing and producing more products here in Canada based on those material inputs.
Here in Alberta, we have had the good fortune to have oil prices, and therefore resource royalties, soar in the last 10 years. Even the Chinese communists couldn't mess that up (and China is in fact booming economically too, although past federal Liberal governments have managed to mess up the Alberta economy, but that is not the current issue). When I look at the performance of the Alberta government, however, I see a gov't that still manages to waste a lot of money, and produce a very mediocre result in terms of public services (schools, universities, healthcare, and roads/transportation, and taxes) compared to other jurisdictions that have had similar good fortune (Alaska being a prime example - where the state has created a massive and growing fund that will fund public services for decades to come, and provides annual dividends of several thousand dollars to each state resident. Alberta's Heritage Fund was envisioned to be a similar concept 25+years ago, but mismanagement and lack of long term commitment to the original plan have seen it actually decline in value compared to inflation.
Similarly on a national front, I see our economy as growing largely in spite of, rather than because of, our federal government. Most of the financial changes that started yielding federal surpluses in the 90's actually originated with the Mulroney Tories (now there's a popular topic -lol), coupled with a world economy that recovered it's appetite for Canadian natural resources - so like the Alberta Tories, there's little the federal Liberals can really take credit for. On the other hand, we have amongst the highest taxes in the developed world, and yet a lower level of public services than other relatively high tax western nations, such as Sweden, France, Germany, or Australia. And we're still largely hewers of wood and drawers of water for other nations that consume our resources, rather than multiplying our resource advantage by processing and producing more products here in Canada based on those material inputs.
As for Alberta, I don't think even Klein can screw up whats coming your way - did you watch 60 Minutes tonight?? The Americans are drooling all over you guys...
#38
Originally Posted by vipernicus42
No politician trick-or-treaters in my region...
these posts don't look like predictions of what the gov't will look like. Stick to the topic or I'll close the thread, buggers.
Jon
these posts don't look like predictions of what the gov't will look like. Stick to the topic or I'll close the thread, buggers.
Jon
#39
Thread Starter
Rotary Freak
iTrader: (7)
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 1,855
Likes: 0
From: Woodbridge, Ontario
Originally Posted by vipernicus42
No politician trick-or-treaters in my region...
these posts don't look like predictions of what the gov't will look like. Stick to the topic or I'll close the thread, buggers.
Jon
these posts don't look like predictions of what the gov't will look like. Stick to the topic or I'll close the thread, buggers.
Jon
Take it easy, I don't think this is the first time we've had political discussions in the Canadian Forum. In fact I know it isn't. Many discussions end up poitical in nature.
In fact the main forum lounge is often littered with US political discourse. And the DoO section is a no holds barred slug match of political views. Nobody is trying to offend anyone else in this thread so ease up on the threats of closure.
I don't mean to speak for others but I am sure we are all just eager to see what happens tomorrow.
#40
Originally Posted by Northern 7
As for Alberta, I don't think even Klein can screw up whats coming your way - did you watch 60 Minutes tonight?? The Americans are drooling all over you guys...
Too True Fort Mac is nuts, gas costs more the food up there, freaking nuts, i have a buddy he designs computer chips for Shell lives in Clagary he gets flow up every monday then flown down every friday, then again next week, it's just nuts what they will do for the right people up there.
Originally Posted by Alak
Originally Posted by vipernicus42
No politician trick-or-treaters in my region...
these posts don't look like predictions of what the gov't will look like. Stick to the topic or I'll close the thread, buggers.
Jon
these posts don't look like predictions of what the gov't will look like. Stick to the topic or I'll close the thread, buggers.
Jon
I belive the correct terminology is 'Hosers' Not 'Buggers'. Or have the liberals gotten to you too?
i Dunno seems kinda uptight to me lol maybee he is getting investigated cause he over spent and now the car is on the back burner:P (just kidding, need some sunday night laughs lol) not trying to pick on ya but i'm just have too much sugar running through me and too much cockyness i can admit that :P. maybee we all just need to watch Strange Brew again, i know i could i love that show no matter how cheesy it is, it is a classic Corny movie
Prôdigy
#43
Now Michael Moore wants to influence your vote:
Controversial American documentary filmmaker Michael Moore bemoaned an apparent right turn by liberal northern neighbor Canada in its upcoming general election.
"Oh, Canada -- you're not really going to elect a Conservative majority on Monday, are you? That's a joke, right? I know you have a great sense of humor, ... but this is no longer funny," Moore complained in a commentary on his website.
"First, you have the courage to stand against the war in Iraq -- and then you elect a prime minister who's for it. You declare gay people have equal rights -- and then you elect a man who says they don't," Moore moaned.
Conservatives led by Stephen Harper were ahead of Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals by a comfortable 10 to 12 points, polls showed Saturday, two days before Canadians go to the polls.
In "Bowling for Columbine," his documentary on gun violence in the United States, Moore heads north to Canada to flee the rise of conservatism on US soil.
"A man running the nation to the south of you is hoping you can lend him a hand by picking Stephen Harper, because he's a man who shares his world view. Do you want to help George Bush by turning Canada into his latest conquest?" Moore asked.
"Far be it from me, as an American, to suggest what you should do," he added. "I hope you don't feel this appeal of mine is too intrusive, but I just couldn't sit by, as your friend, and say nothing."
Yes it's intrusive. And no, you are not a friend.
Just go away, please.
Controversial American documentary filmmaker Michael Moore bemoaned an apparent right turn by liberal northern neighbor Canada in its upcoming general election.
"Oh, Canada -- you're not really going to elect a Conservative majority on Monday, are you? That's a joke, right? I know you have a great sense of humor, ... but this is no longer funny," Moore complained in a commentary on his website.
"First, you have the courage to stand against the war in Iraq -- and then you elect a prime minister who's for it. You declare gay people have equal rights -- and then you elect a man who says they don't," Moore moaned.
Conservatives led by Stephen Harper were ahead of Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals by a comfortable 10 to 12 points, polls showed Saturday, two days before Canadians go to the polls.
In "Bowling for Columbine," his documentary on gun violence in the United States, Moore heads north to Canada to flee the rise of conservatism on US soil.
"A man running the nation to the south of you is hoping you can lend him a hand by picking Stephen Harper, because he's a man who shares his world view. Do you want to help George Bush by turning Canada into his latest conquest?" Moore asked.
"Far be it from me, as an American, to suggest what you should do," he added. "I hope you don't feel this appeal of mine is too intrusive, but I just couldn't sit by, as your friend, and say nothing."
Yes it's intrusive. And no, you are not a friend.
Just go away, please.
#44
Originally Posted by Northern 7
What I said was not "reasoning" - it's just another way of looking at it. I'm a believer of the old concept "Better the Devil you Know" - I'm in full agreement with most of what you've said - I'm just not convinced that there is a present party that can deliver. In fact, I see the potential for further mismanagement by one of these clowns if we give them the chance (and it looks like we will).
As for Alberta, I don't think even Klein can screw up whats coming your way - did you watch 60 Minutes tonight?? The Americans are drooling all over you guys...
As for Alberta, I don't think even Klein can screw up whats coming your way - did you watch 60 Minutes tonight?? The Americans are drooling all over you guys...
As far as the Honourable Mr. Klein, I don't feel so much that the provincial Tories are screwing up our present prosperity, its more a matter that I think they are failing to build on the present windfalls, for a future (only about 25yrs away) when most of the easy to extract and refine conventional crude is gone in Alberta. We'll still have the vast reserves of the tarsands, but currently about 25% of the output of the tarsands is consumed in extraction of the oil - so it will always be expensive and relatively inefficient to rely on oilsands - also meaning lower revenues compared to conventional crude. If the government had followed its own roadmap over the last 25yrs, we might be a lot closer to the position of Alaska, with a self-sustaining investment fund to provide for present and future needs.
#45
I was really strongly leaning towards NDP but I think that liberal have really sold me on their party in the last few days. So yeah, I'm pretty sure I'm voting liberal today.
anyone that votes conservative should shake their head and look ath their past history in canada. Every good thing they've got their hands on they've ruined or scrapped. Anyone here remember Mr. Mulroney? Or Diefenbaker? gah.
Our economy is doing pretty damn well, look at the TSE or our dollar.
anyways, yeah. I'm voting liberal. yay.
anyone that votes conservative should shake their head and look ath their past history in canada. Every good thing they've got their hands on they've ruined or scrapped. Anyone here remember Mr. Mulroney? Or Diefenbaker? gah.
Our economy is doing pretty damn well, look at the TSE or our dollar.
anyways, yeah. I'm voting liberal. yay.
#46
Wah!
You think the TSE and the dollar are as a result of Liberal management????
Wahhh! Git yer head outta the sand.
You think the liberals are responsible for China's demand for precious metals, the global price of oil, or the declining US dollar??
You think the TSE and the dollar are as a result of Liberal management????
Wahhh! Git yer head outta the sand.
You think the liberals are responsible for China's demand for precious metals, the global price of oil, or the declining US dollar??
#47
dude where's my car?
Originally Posted by vipernicus42
No politician trick-or-treaters in my region...
these posts don't look like predictions of what the gov't will look like. Stick to the topic or I'll close the thread, buggers.
Jon
these posts don't look like predictions of what the gov't will look like. Stick to the topic or I'll close the thread, buggers.
Jon
BAAAAAAAAAAMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!! I just voted for the marijuana party!!! lets fire up those rotax's and smoke eh out of office!!!
lighten up jon or we'll de-carbonize you off this island.
#48
Originally Posted by rx7racerca
My point is essentially that "the Devil you know" is just that - a Devil! So get thee behind me Satan! If we resist change because we fear the devil we don't know, we help to feed the sense of entitlement and self-satisfaction that tends to emerge in any government that serves more than two consecutive terms - and that in turn breeds the corruption, mismanagement, and lack of direction that makes us all wary of politicians - I strongly believe simply being in power for an extended period of time tends to corrupt all but the most public-service minded of people. Hence, any other devil is better than the devil you know I'd consider voting for the NDP if I thought they had a chance at forming a government, even though I'm very wary of their tax and spend ways, just because I believe change in governments is essential for healthy democracy - keeps 'em honest and on their toes (and as far as the NDP is concerned, in power, I think they'd just end up with spending policies a lot like the Libs, once confronted with the realities of running a country).
As far as the Honourable Mr. Klein, I don't feel so much that the provincial Tories are screwing up our present prosperity, its more a matter that I think they are failing to build on the present windfalls, for a future (only about 25yrs away) when most of the easy to extract and refine conventional crude is gone in Alberta. We'll still have the vast reserves of the tarsands, but currently about 25% of the output of the tarsands is consumed in extraction of the oil - so it will always be expensive and relatively inefficient to rely on oilsands - also meaning lower revenues compared to conventional crude. If the government had followed its own roadmap over the last 25yrs, we might be a lot closer to the position of Alaska, with a self-sustaining investment fund to provide for present and future needs.
As far as the Honourable Mr. Klein, I don't feel so much that the provincial Tories are screwing up our present prosperity, its more a matter that I think they are failing to build on the present windfalls, for a future (only about 25yrs away) when most of the easy to extract and refine conventional crude is gone in Alberta. We'll still have the vast reserves of the tarsands, but currently about 25% of the output of the tarsands is consumed in extraction of the oil - so it will always be expensive and relatively inefficient to rely on oilsands - also meaning lower revenues compared to conventional crude. If the government had followed its own roadmap over the last 25yrs, we might be a lot closer to the position of Alaska, with a self-sustaining investment fund to provide for present and future needs.
Back to the topic of Mr Klein, I don't see any difference between screwing up and failing. With the prosperity Alberta enjoys, I think it must take a special talent to srew up / fail in such a setting. I would almost be tempted to agree with your "change" theory in this case.
As for the tarsands, it no longer matters what it costs to separate the oil from the dirt - we have now crossed that economic threshold were the cost out weighed the return.